Going Rogue: In Defense of Scrubs

Few things seem to bring out the ire of good players like the doolist who insists on playing a rogue strategy.  The most vociferous comments come from anonymous posters. However, castigation has also emanated from some of the game’s biggest names. The longest and most articulate of these arguments is by Johnny Li, an ARG writer who posted a three part treatise that drew heavily on David Sirlin’s Playing to Win. Since this post is something of a rebuttal, I would encourage you to read it for yourself. 
 

Mr. Li’s attack on rogue decks is part of a much larger thesis on competitive play.  The central premise is that players lose because they handicap themselves with restrictions that go beyond the rules.  Sirlin refers to such players as “scrubs”, a term that Mr. Li recognizes as inflammatory.  Scrubs, in this sense, have a moral or aesthetic code that keeps them from playing certain cards or taking advantage of certain situations.  For example, a scrub may refuse to play Qlipharts because their mechanic is unfair.  While some may disparage the deck, playing it is certainly within the rules of Yugioh.  Other players may feel it is immoral to watch their opponent shuffle because they might reveal one of their cards.  Again, this is a game. There is no moral and immoral, only permissible and impermissible. 

The most succinct summary of Li’s writing is that only scrubs play rogue decks. Though he seems somewhat baffled by the practice, he does offer the following explanations:

• Scrubs value originality over winning.  They would rather impress others with their creative deck list then their number of tops.
• Scrubs value fairness over winning. Scrubs like to hide behind a moral veneer by disparaging unfair decks as sacky or helmet.
• Scrubs don’t want to face their shortcomings by playing mirror matches. Playing a rogue deck gives them an excuse for losing. 
• Scrubs are hipsters who think the less popular decks must be better.
• Scrubs believe in player preference.  They feel that there is no “best” answer when it comes to defining the best deck. 

Such reasoning is not without merit. After all, it is easier to get props for creativity than it is to top a YCS.  I know.  Somewhere in the bowels of the Yugitube universe is a profile of the deck I took to Nationals.  While the feature was flattering, it was not my intention to be original.  I wanted to win. 

I would posit that there are legitimate reasons for doolists to choose rogue decks.  Despite Mr. Li’s protestations, not all of us are scrubs.

Cost

Top tier decks are expensive.  You can spend $300 and have little more than five cards from the Burning Abyss Extra Deck.  Successful players will counter that their investment is a sign of their desire to win. Nevertheless, an investment that you will not likely recoup is a major impediment.  Many players will go rogue simply because it’s all they can afford.

Price pressure has an impact on archetype choice the moment the cards are released.  Players are often forced to choose a deck early before scarcity drives the price beyond their means.  Dante was a $25 card for about one week.  By September it was in the $50 to $60 range and many doolists were locked out.  Again, one could rightly argue that good players saw value in the archetype and took advantage of the release price.  Nevertheless, Mr. Li does not consider economics in his characterization of rogue players. 

Strategic Edge

A color commentator at the World Series of Poker noted that expert players would occasional make a lower percentage play because it throws off their opponent.  Rogue decks can have the same effect.  Many players use rogue strategies because they know how difficult it is to win a straight-up mirror match against an elite player. By introducing an element of unpredictability, they hope to even the odds.  This strategy is not completely relegated to unknown scrubs. Billy Brake’s YCS success with a 60 card deck qualifies as a rogue strategy.  It is worth noting the length of time between this win and his previous YCS successes. 

Rogue players may also get a strategic edge by using a deck they know very well.  One of our locals is attended by a doolist that plays Six Samurai to the exclusion of all else.  His cards are almost worn past legal play.  Nevertheless, he plays the deck amazingly well.  His familiarity with the deck frees him up to concentrate on his opponent.  While you are trying to decide which BA monster to summon, he can pick up on your tells.  Again, I would not advocate taking Six Sams to a YCS.  However, this type of reasoning seems to escape Mr. Li.  

In Search of the Best

I have certainly met many players that fit Mr. Li’s description of a scrub.  In fact, I share some of his bewilderment when local doolists describe their latest “broken strategy”.  While I do try some unconventional builds, my deck choices are not far from the mainstream.  That said, I recognize the impossibility of knowing the best build of the best deck.  

To put Yugioh into context, consider Heads-Up Limit Texas Hold’Em, a simpler variant of the popular Poker game.  This game was recently “solved” using the language of game theory.  (The best example of a solved game is Tic-Tac-Toe, where no one over the age of 8 loses.)  The solution only took a cluster 200 2.1 GHz AMD cores and 900 core years of computing. That game had 1.47x10e13 information sets.  Yugioh has 1.67x10e106 40 card combinations.  The number of information sets is several logs higher.  This game is not getting solved anytime soon. 

On a more practical level, most statements about builds do not incorporate sound statistical reasoning.  In a previous post, I pointed out that statistical significance required sampling 384 hands. Deck lists (including my own) get changed with sample sizes that are far below this threshold.  This is not a criticism of the game so much as a statement of fact.  Given these uncertainties, players will continue to seek for an advantage by experimenting with unconventional choices.   Most will fail, but some will succeed and define the next meta.

After You: Going Second in Yugioh

Yugioh used to be a simple game.  If you won the dice roll, you went first.  If you lost, you had an excuse for losing.  

Today’s game has changed that simple formula.  Many clever doolists are deferring their turn and letting their opponent go first.  Since Yugioh players are not known for their manners, there must be a reason for this sudden rise in courtesy.

Choosing to go first or second has become a complex decision.  Doolists need to consider what is advantageous to their deck as well as what may be detrimental to their opponent’s deck.  This decision can be facilitated by understanding the advantages of going first or second.  I categorize these advantages as follows: 

• Card advantage
• Board Advantage
• Attack Advantage

Card advantage is pretty basic.  Players going first get five cards and those going second get six.  This difference means your chances for drawing a limited card increase by 2.5%.  In other words, players going second will benefit from an early Raigeki in one game in 40.  This advantage is greater for decks that run search cards. If Tellarknight players run three Deneb and three ROTA, their odds of opening with Deneb increase by 7.2% or one game in 13.  All of the top meta decks benefit from this phenomenon, but, it may make the biggest difference to Qliphart players.  Most will tell you that their deck is more consistent when going second as these numbers suggest.  

Board advantage is the advantage that comes from getting your cards on the matt first.  In general, this advantage goes to the player going first in exchange for card advantage lost to the player going second.  Trap heavy decks benefit the most from board advantage.  In fact, I suspect this rule change was prompted by the dreaded “Laggia/set four” combination seen at the height of the Dino Rabbit era. 

This advantage is being diminished by the recent reduction in traps by the top decks. While Burning Abyss and Qlipharts have become nearly trap independent, the board advantage calculus has been changed the most by Shaddolls.  This deck actually gains board advantage from going second, particularly if the opponent unwittingly opens with a special summoned monster.  In short, the Shaddolls gain both card and board advantage by going second.  While this deck may be the best at combining board and card advantage, other decks can do so as well by maining cards like Enemy Controller and Snatch Steal.   

Attack Advantage is the ability to do life point damage first.  In the past, this advantage was relatively small since the game focused on managing life points rather than crushing them. The Qlipharts have changed this prescription a bit.  Their attacks are so massive and so quick that “managing” life points is like bailing out the Titanic.  While most opponents will have the resources to deal with the deck, gathering these resources takes time.  By going second, Qlip players can make sure these resources are never amassed. 

Given the choice, I will almost always go second despite using a trap heavy Satellarknight deck.  I mitigate the loss of board advantage by leaving out cards that are good openers but are poorer responders.  For example, I play Enemy Controller instead of Bottomless Trap Hole.  Nevertheless, the deck does have better first turn plays than most of the competition.  So I’ll summon Deneb, set two, and say “Go”.

Show Up and Share: A Plea to Save the Dying Local Tournament

I would like to say I found “Tellar Triumph” this weekend at my locals. While I did go undefeated, it was something of a specious victory.  I was the only one in attendance.

Granted, it’s not a large shop and turnout tends to drop during the holidays.  However, this is not an isolated incident.  I regularly go to tournaments at three card shops and all three have had difficulties attracting enough players.  Attendance is so sporadic at one of the shops that the owner is considering dropping Yugioh altogether. 

I have been playing this game long enough to recognize that local attendance can be cyclical.  However, I think there have been recent changes that threaten the health of local stores.  The first is the growing complexity of the game. While the PSCT changes are welcome, the newer archetypes and the addition of pendulum summoning can be mind-numbing. This complexity discourages casual players and those trying to learn the game.  While experienced players may treat these groups with disdain, they sustain local shops.  

The second trend is the growing influence of on-line stores and gaming.  For those below the age of thirty, on-line gaming is a fact of life and not a trend.  I realize DN and other forums have been around since the game’s inception. However, they do steal players from local shops.   On-line play testing is faster, more convenient, and often can be done with better competition.  On-line vendors offer product at lower prices and EBay can make unloading unwanted cards profitable.  Together, they lower the incentive for both trading and playing IRL. 

Local shops have had to deal with the game’s mutability and the internet for years.  These factors have always made running a local shop a precarious economic venture.  The final straw may be the rise of large “cash” tournaments.  

Before you dismiss this opinion, you should realize that I enjoy big tournaments.  At the very least, the current Swiss system insures that I will spend a day playing good players who know the game.  However, these tournaments tend to be inaccessible to new players and most casual players will find them quite discouraging.  In the meantime, they are drawing players away from locals.  

The long term consequences of this trend could be devastating.  Players are introduced to the game through locals and most will only continue to play if these early experiences are enjoyable. I can fondly remember my first local tournament.  I played Robert, a big gregarious fellow who patiently explained how each of his cards worked.  His ready laugh and lack of condescension made the dool fun.  Despite losing to everyone, I wanted to come back.  To this day, I try to treat less experienced players with the same attitude.  The future of our game depends on it.  

I realize my influence in the Yugioh world is small.  Still, I would like to propose a few changes to save the game. 

1. Konami needs to reward players who attend local tournaments.  This can be done in two ways.  First, they can increase the number of valuable cards in each pack.  Having decent cards in one of every five packs rather than one in every 40 packs gives new players a chance to have access to these cards.  Such a change will make receiving a “Consolation Pack” worthwhile.  Second, they should offer invites to those players who regularly attend local tournaments.  My experience at nationals was a highlight of my Yugioh life.  There is no reason this experience can’t be shared with more players.  Besides, if you play in thirty-six local tournaments, you probably have enough experience to make a go at nationals.  I wouldn’t expect these players to win, but I would expect them to continue playing the game. 
2. ARG and Konami need to bury the hatchet and coordinate their tournaments.  Both organizations are contributing to the demise of local tournaments by offering more premier events.  In this area, such tournaments have been within driving range for the majority of weekends in the past several months.  Local shops cannot continue to offer tournaments if they only have players once a month.
3. Experienced doolists need to support their local stores.  It’s time to give something back.  We should encourage younger and less experienced players.  Our lack of participation reeks of selfishness.  Instead, we should embrace the motto, “Show up and Share”

I do not pretend to speak for all players.  Your local may be healthy and thriving.  However, I am sure there are those that have made the same observations.  Comments are welcome from all. 

A Tribute to SSJason19

I’ve watched more Yugitubing than home movies, local news, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine combined. 

Perhaps that’s not saying much.  Nevertheless, I have consumed a large amount of Yugioh content in 10 to 15 minute video bites.  The most recent binge came with a contest sponsored by Underworld6667 who brought 32 aspiring videographers together to vie for the title of the Next Great Yugituber.   While the contest had the alacrity of a US Presidential election, it did reveal three promising Yugitubers.  However, none of them rose to the level of my favorite, SSJason19. 

At his best, Jason does what few Yugitubers can, namely explain the game of Yugioh.  YouTube is rife with self-appointed experts offering such cutting commentary as “This card is broken” of “That deck sucks”.  However, few can give cogent reasons for their passionate statements.  Even fewer offer principles that can be applied to the game in general.

For those of you who have yet to click on the link to his channel, here is a small sample:

• The neg 1 exceed: Playing two cards from your hand to make one XYZ monster is a Neg 1 Exceed.   This simple rule explains why 80% of the archetypes in Yugioh are bad. It also explains the potential perils of cards like Satellarknight Vega and Tin Goldfish.  Vega works well with Deneb as does Goldfish with Gadgets.  However, most of the time you are giving up card advantage and making yourself vulnerable to one-for-one removal.  

•  MST is bad: Jason created more than a little stir by suggesting MST be taken out of the main deck.  Nevertheless, his point was quite valid.  Drawing into an MST can be a problem in the latter portion of the duel.  With the exception of Qlipharts, you generally need to deal with monsters and not spells and traps.

• Cake and Crap: A couple of months ago I wrote a post about combining different engines.  While this method can create some interesting decks, the usual outcome is a deck that underperforms.  The reason is that most hybrids use an excellent engine (i.e. the cake) and combine it with a deck that needs help (i.e. the crap).  As SSJason colorfully points out nobody wants to eat cake with crap in it. 

The Yugitube world seems to be divided into analysts and entertainers.  The division is somewhat arbitrary since many analysts entertain and vice-versa.  I make distinction based on my motivation for clicking on a video.  Do I want to be amused or do I want to learn something? I learn from analysts. 

Unfortunately, the careers of analysts are often much shorter than the careers of entertainers.  Perhaps their understanding makes them more aware of the game’s problems.  I suspect this is the case for Jason.  His prodigious video output has taken a significant drop in the past several months as the game has introduced archetypes and mechanics that make concepts like “card advantage” irrelevant.

I hope Jason continues to make videos.  His slightly subversive style combined with an endearing Scottish brogue will always be welcome.  

My YouTube Recommendations:

Analysts

• MegaCapitalG: Cap may be one of the best analysts in the game today.  His duel commentaries are far better than those used by Konami or ARG.  My only criticism is his penchant to butcher the pronunciation of card names; but as a hometown guy, I’ll cut him some slack.
• Lithium2300: While I may be drawn in by the gravitas of his Belgium accent, I still believe Lithium offers outstanding analysis of up and coming archetypes.  He does have a penchant for Monarchs, but this may be the best rogue strategy in the game today. 
• Cimoooooo: If you like Yugi-enthusiasm, you will love this channel.  Cimoooooo provides some of the best tech analysis in the game. 

Entertainers

• GalacticGod: As the veritable grandfather of the Yugitube world, GalacticGod reminds us what is fun about this game.  
• YourYugiohChannel: High quality, well edited videos + a likable host = a very successful Yugitube channel.
• TheRJB0: Robert is one of the few Yugitubers that defies my classification.  He does entertaining analysis or analytical entertainment. 
• Duelrock88: Along with RJB0 and Cimoooooo, Duelrock made the hours of Underworlds contest worthwhile.  As a host, he is quite likeable and he benefits from his association with team UNITED GOSUS.
• dpYGO: Those of you with delicate sensibilities would be advised to avoid this channel.  Everyone else should click on an ad so that he can pay the rent.