Sneaking for a New Partner

… and they’re off!

Feeding on the pent-up demand from months of virtual play, doolists anxiously scooped up cards at this weekend’s sneak peek.  Most of our intrepid brethren knew exactly what they wanted.  They would not be lured away by the odd dragon in their quest to fill their playsets.  It mattered little that no one could pronounce Unukalha or that TCG translations were all but unrecognizable.  They were ready to spurn their HATs and CATS for dolls and knights. 

However, some of us were not so single-minded. Quite frankly, my time with Geargias has been so enjoyable that I did not want to sequester them in a binder.  Of course, I knew about the new archetypes; I just wasn’t ready to make a commitment.  As a result, yesterday’s sneak peek felt like a speed dating event.  

“Hello, I’m a Samsara … I like bringing monsters back from the grave…”

I was hoping to pull a card that would push me to playing Shaddolls or Satellarknights.  As it turned out, I pulled Castel.  While it’s one of the best cards in the set, he’s not helping me decide between the two dominant archetypes. So I turned to the next best indicator … money.

The table below lists the commonly played cards in both Shaddolls and Satellarknights.  These are sample lists gleaned from the OCG and are not meant to be definitive deck lists.  The cost for each card is listed in the column to the right.  These prices were determined by the current price on Ebay.  I should quickly point out that these prices are likely to drop in the near future as the hype dissipates a bit.  These lulls in the market are rather predictable but not stable.  Many cards will begin to escalate within weeks of their release.  

I should also point out that the premium price for Shaddolls is probably deserved.  This deck has more viability in the coming Qliphoth storm.  That said, the Satellarknight deck is pretty strong.  A friend of mine finished second with this deck despite missing several of the cards scheduled for later release.  Besides, the Geargias have provided me with a nice stable of rank 4 XYZ monsters.  And now I have Castel who can step into the place of the retiring Geargigant X.  

Chasing the Dream

How much fun can you have for $250?

• General admission to Disney World, 3 hamburgers, and a Goofy hat
• Dinner for you and your chums from locals at the Golden Corral
• Sbyke P-20 Scooter Skateboard Bike Hybrid
• The Best of Spiderman autographed by Stan Lee

OR

• A complete playset of Artifacts cards

Konami seems to have returned to their policy of driving up demand for their product by limiting the release of certain cards. The promised revolution that was heralded by The Dragons of Legend has been quickly quelled by Primal Origins.  Say what you want about Soul Charge, at least we all had access to it! The same does not seem to apply to the present booster pack.  

Despite the Anjelly’s propensity to induce poverty and diabetes, there are no real “chase” cards in Primal Origins.   Instead we have a collection of very good archetypal cards that need to be acquired in groups to be useful.  Konami has replaced “chase cards” with “chase sets”.  This quality makes purchase decisions difficult.  Most archetypes only spend a few months at the top to the Yugioh charts. After their moment of glory is done, the Forbidden & Limited list trims them down and dumps them into the tier-two bin.  Your one-of, pricey card is not nearly as vulnerable to obsolescence as an entire archetype.  

Chase cards, on the other hand, are valued because they are flexible and generic.  They are tech cards that can be slotted into a variety of decks. As a result, players are more willing to invest larger sums of money.  Consider my most expensive single card purchase to date.  I bought a Draccosack for $65 and subsequently have detached materials, summoned tokens, and popped cards about 40 times. In other words, I have paid $1.63 for each pop.  While this might seem exorbitant to some, I remain confident that this card’s work is not done.  I’m not sure if the same applies to a playset of Artifact Ignitions with the shadow of the Shadoll’s looming in the background.

Chase cards eventually make their way into the hands of the general public through reprints.  Many of us are willing to pass on the latest duel-crushing secret rare knowing that reprints are inevitable.  How long do you need to wait?  The table below lists some of the most popular chase cards of the past seven years.  On average, this wait was about 1.3 years. The reprint engine doesn't apply to chase sets.  I can't imagine the Artifacts will be repackaged as a tin 14 months from now. Unlike chase cards, it's now or never.    

At this point, I am not particularly bullish on the pack. Though the Artifact engine can be combined with a number of archetypes, I can’t really bring myself to shell out the money needed for the set.  Chronomaly Artifacts took the OCG by storm, but that deck has been eclipsed by several others.  Instead, I’ll be saving my money for the next chase set coming this summer …

… or maybe I’ll pick up an Exciton Knight instead.

Cheap Deals from the OCG

Okay – I get it.  The TCG and OCG are so far apart that tournament reports from across the Pacific are little more than cultural oddities.  You might as well base your side deck on a Kaijudo deck list than try to learn something from the OCG.  They have different ban lists, exclusives, play styles, and tax systems. Reunification of the Korean peninsula seems more likely than reconciliation of the two metas.  Besides, who needs their Cyberstein when we can top deck wins with Soul Charge?

While the relevance of the OCG meta continues to suffer, it has not waned completely.  They still play Yugioh and, contrary to popular belief, they don’t play Cyberstein.  The biggest difference between the two metas is the presence of Nebra Disk, which won’t be available to us until the fall. Thus, their most dominating deck, Chronomaly Artifiacts, is not likely to top a Western YCS.  

Nevertheless, a search through the OCG can lead to the discovery of future gems.  I picked up Fiendish Chain for pennies by watching the card get play in the OCG.  You could have had a playset of Overworked for $0.60 if you noticed the siding habits of OCG players.  As always, past performance does not predict future fortune.  Still, many of these cards are cheap or (even better) gathering dust with a bunch of common cards. 

As a reference point, I surveyed all the OCG tournaments of more than 50 players listed on Shriek as of April 1^st.  70 decks were listed; the percentage of each deck is given in the graph.  Beside each deck type, there is a “Power Number”. This number roughly measures how well the deck placed.  Lower numbers suggest more first and second place finishes.  

As one would expect, Chronomaly Artifacts and Dragon Ruler variants are the most common decks. In fact, decks with either artifacts or dragons make up more than 50% of their meta.  Shadolls are also making their presence felt, which is not surprising given the flexibility of the deck.  The Mermails and Geargias are not going away though the latter relies on Machina monsters.

Coming Soon

Several of the side deck choices are predictable given that many of the Chronomalies are machines. Cyber Dragons and Chimeratechs are common and System Down is seeing more play. The pressure for the TCG to pick up on this trend is even greater since we live with charged souls.  Can you imagine what it is like to draw into Soul Charge with a pile of monsters in the banished zone? 

 

Light-monster hate is becoming more common as well.  Bujins, Chronomalies, Battertymen, and Artifacts are all light.  Enter the Ally of Justice monsters and Koa-ki Meiru Doom.  For those of you who loved Solemn Warning, there is Chaos Trap Hole.  Thankfully, none of these cards are more than $0.50 

 

OCG players also appear to be investing in life point cards.  For the most part, LP cards only see play in RKD’s*.  However, I suspect many of their duels are going into time.  As a result, Emergency Provisions, Rainbow Life, and Supremacy Berry can steal games.  One could argue these cards have even more value in our meta where Soul Charge turns life points into monsters.  

With the exception of Chimeratech Fortress Dragon, all of these cards are less than a dollar.  At the very least, it is probably worthwhile sorting through that shoe box of commons to find them.  Today's 25 cent common can be tomorrow's five dollar must-have. 

* RKD: Random Kid Deck

Searching for Gems among the Generic Shadow Specter Cards

Konami appears to have the following marketing strategy:  Introduce a cool archetype with an interesting mechanic at an accessible rarity.  Follow this set with one that offers additional support, but make sure these cards are secret rare.  Throw in a few TCG exclusives that will guarantee the success of the archetype.  After 8 to 12 months, ban a few key cards; introduce new archetypes; rinse and repeat.  

This strategy leaves players with two choices: (1) chase after the over-valued and over-powered cards or (2) play the deck without the chase cards.  Players following the first choice are called poor; those following the second are called losers.  In about six months, Konami will sell reprints of the chase cards.  As a result, the poor players will become salty as they watch their investment drop by about 80%. The losers are still losers because their deck will be hopelessly obsolete.  

One (perhaps) unintended consequence of this strategy is the shrinking pool of universally playable or generic cards.  These cards are usually the hidden gems of set.  They can be quite undervalued at first because players are not sure what to do with them.  For example, I picked up Number 11: Big Eye for about $10.  At the time, no one thought you could make rank seven XYZs easily.  On the other hand, 10 bucks seemed cheap for the ability to take an opponent’s monster forever*.  

Unfortunately, I don’t think there are any real hidden gems in the Shadow Specter’s set.  Of the 100 cards, two thirds are dedicated to archetypes.  Of the 32 generic cards, nine are worth a look.  Most of the good generic cards seem to be fairly priced.  Nevertheless, here is my assessment of those cards on a “Buy It”, “Pull It”, or “Leave It” scale**.  

·         Mistake - $22.99, Buy It

o   This is best card in the set.  It causes problems for Bujins, Geargias, Dragons, Spellbooks, and any other search-based deck.  It is undervalued because a lot of decks can’t play it.  Regardless of how the meta changes, this card will be useful. 

·         Pot of Dichotomy - $24.99, Pull it

o   Any card that lets recycle cards and plus by drawing is a good card.  Constellars, Evilswarms, and Madolches will benefit greatly though a lot of other archetype-based decks are also type limited. Shelling out $75 for a play set seems a bit rich.  On the other hand, I would buy it if the price drops into the low teens. 

·         Celestial Wolf Lord - $5.00, Pull it

o   There are 10 generic level six synchro monsters.  Of these, only Gaia Knight has a higher attack.  The only comparable synchro is HTS Psyhemuth.  Personally, I like this one better.  

·         Return of the Monarchs - $3.50, Buy it

o   Monarchs may see some play next format.  They work well with Ghostricks and Frog Monarchs have never gone completely away.  If you’ve played the deck, you know that too many Monarchs can clump badly.  This card may let you decrease the number of Monarchs without decreasing you access to them. 

·         Puralis, the Purple Pyrotile – $0.15, Buy it

o   There are three level two synchros and one is limited.  Given this low number and the low price, I’d pick it up.  Besides, it has the best name since Interplanetarypurplythorny Dragon. 

·         Armored Kappa - $1.29, Buy It

o   Rank two XYZs may become more popular if Ghostricks catch fire. There are eight such monsters, of which five are generic. Armored Kappa is not the best of the bunch but it certainly is playable.  I don’t see people playing more than one so forking over a buck and a quarter seems reasonable

·         Swarm of Crows - $0.15, Leave It

o   This card is one word and one level away from being a gem. I don’t understand why they demanded that it be flip summoned and not just flipped. Even with that restriction, it may have been playable as a level four.  As is, it’s not worth pulling. 

·         Aratama - $0.10 – Buy it

o   One could consider the Spirit monsters in this set to be their own archetype.  The mechanic is intriguing and searching is always a good thing.  Besides, a play set is cheaper than that Coke you're drinking.

·         Genomix Fighter - $0.49 – Leave it

o   An ultra-rare for under a buck?  The price did make me take a long look at this card.  Its ability to summon without a tribute is a plus and it is searchable with certain Gusto and psychic cards.  However, the list of synchro monsters that require specific types is rather weak.  As a result, I do not see much future for this card. 

 

*Before you think I am Yugi clairvoyant, I also have a $15 Vampire Dragon. Take my advice with a liberal dose of salt. 

** Prices are from CoreTCG