Friday, November 15, 2013

The Worst Yugioh Regional Ever!!



Well … maybe not the worst regional ever.  The Charlotte event this weekend started on time, moved along quickly, and gave us a 30 minute dinner break.  There were plenty of judges and no delays between rounds.

Still, my performance was dismal. 

My first-round loss to Constellars should have been avoided. However, I misread an Honest and left Pleiades on the field with no materials.  He simply overlayed with Ptolemy M7 and took the game.

The second round went something like:

·         Game 1: Garunix loop
·         Game 2: Insightful, creative, unexpected Geargia play for the win.
·         Game 3: Garunix loop

My third loss was the same as the second round only substitute Grapha for Garunix.

Since there were only 8 rounds, I decided not to fight futility and drop from the event.  I was, in fact, conflicted about playing Geargias.  Most of the play testing in the past several weeks focused on Harpie Rulers.  Perhaps, my poor Geargia vibe was a punishment for abandoning the Harpies.  But, not to worry, there were several Win-A-Mat flights to be played.  Perhaps I could redeem my day with Harpie Rulers?

For those of you not in relationships – here’s a tip: Don’t date two women at the same time. 

It may be good Yugioh advice too.  My Harpie Rulers treated me with the same disdain as my Geargias.   I felt like I was watching two ex-girlfriends laugh at me from behind their lockers.  

I spent $36 and several hours buying mats for other people.  I lost to Madolches, Dragunity Dragons, and Fire Fists.  I had the good fortune to play nearly every meta deck … and then lose to all of them. 

I considered not posting this result.  Who wants to admit the grand scale of their own futility?  Now, thanks to Google+, I can broadcast this ineptitude to a wider audience. 

Still, I would like to think that there are some who will read this and benefit.  At the very least, it is certainly possible for any of us to have a bad day. I have seen some great players scrub out by round four.  It happens … move on to the better days to come. 

So what did I learn?

  1. Be careful not to adjust your deck too much for dragons.  The biggest flaw in my Geargia deck was probably too much dragon hate.  I played six cards to help me in the dragon matchup (Swift Scarecrow x 2, Maxx C x 2, and Imperial Iron Wall x 2).  These cards did little to help me in my non-dragon matchups.  Let the deck do what the deck needs to do.
  2. Dragons are even better now.  The improvement in this deck comes from increased reliance on Dragunities and Dragon’s Ravine.  The Mythics help but they are certainly not needed.  The fact is this deck can easily play around Imperial Iron Wall, a card that used to devastate the deck.
  3. Be prepared for more diversity.  There are a lot of decks jockeying for position.  Players seem to be using these tournaments to test new decks.  Everyone is waiting for the heralded death of the dragons.  The result is a very diverse field. 
  4. Harpie Rulers were not enough of either. Though this deck has the potential to do very well, I often found myself without either enough Harpies or enough Dragons.  I tried both my decklist from my previous post and one that uses Tidal instead of Redox.  Neither did particularly well.  Though better players will have much better results, I do think there are solid statistical reasons why this deck doesn’t work. I will share those answers in a future post.  

 The good news is that I gave rides to someone who finished in the top 32 and another who finished in the top 8.  At the very least, my driving was productive … too bad my Accelerators weren’t.  

Friday, November 8, 2013

Still the one ...



How many times in the last two months have you said, “What can I take out of my deck so that I can put in an Imperial Iron Wall or Maxx C?” 

If you haven’t, you’re either playing dragons or losing. 

The simple fact is dragons have become more dominant over the past six weeks.  Though you probably don’t need a data to prove it, I can substantiate your intuition.  I looked at the top decks as listed on TCGPlayer starting in the first week of September. The results are as follows:

Or if you prefer, I can give you the data as a table
  9/4 to 9/6 9/19 to 9/25 10/9 to 10/3 10/16 to 10/18 10/20 to 10/25 10/28 to 11/1
E Dragons 37.0 41.3 60.9 60.4 45.0 59.4
Evilswarm 11.1 6.7 13.0 11.3 10.0 6.3
Spellbooks 14.8 17.3 4.3 1.9 5.0 6.3
Other 0.0 10.7 4.3 9.4 10.0 6.3
Mermails 14.8 5.3 0.0 3.8 0.0 6.3
Fire Fists 3.7 2.7 0.0 3.8 10.0 6.3
Geargia 3.7 1.3 8.7 1.9 5.0 0.0
Constellar 3.7 2.7 0.0 3.8 10.0 0.0
Anti-Meta 7.4 2.7 0.0 1.9 0.0 6.3
Infernities 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.9 5.0 0.0
Chain Bu/Bt 0.0 4.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 3.1
Black wing 3.7 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Here are my observations after spending some time reflecting on this list:
  1.  Dragons are up while Spellbooks and Mermails are down.  If you take 10% from Spellbooks and Mermails at the beginning of the format and add them to the Dragons, you will get the numbers that we are seeing now.  In short, 20% of the top players abandoned their decks from the last format to play dragons.  
  2. The meta is still pretty diverse.  Though the game is dominated by dragon love, there were 27 different archetypes among the top decks.  One could parse this list even more by separating "Blue Eyes Dragon" from "Dragunity Dragon" decks.  Plain vanilla, French vanilla ... its all vanilla. The point is that one needs to consider a large number of decks when preparing for a big tournament. 
  3. Evilswarms and Fire Fists have remained reasonably stable.  I find the Evilswarm deck to be rather dull, but I can't deny its effectiveness against Dragons.  It's relatively inexpensive and not particularly hard to learn.  While some players have moved on to other decks, there are likely others who are picking it up just to stick it to dragons.  The Fire Fist story is a bit different.  This deck is a bit more challenging. I suspect its resiliency is the result of some refinement in play.  
  4. There is always a group of us who simply refuse to pick up the top deck.  Maybe its pride, maybe its money ... regardless of the reason, some of us want to top using our ideas and our decks.  I understand that vibe ... heck, I'm part of that vibe.  Nevertheless, I do find it remarkable that all of this concentrated anti-dragon activity can't really unseat the champions. 
I suspect Shadow Specters will not change the distribution of these top decks.  Though I like Ghostricks and I'm glad Noble Knights are getting some attention, these archetypes cannot compete with E Dragons.  It is a little hard to believe that we can go through the introduction of two sets and not have a substantial change in the meta.  Such is the power of the dragons.  Of course, victory and fame are fleeting.  The conquerors will eventually be vanquished. If not by the new cards, then certainly by the F/L list.  Until then, enjoy those Iron Walls.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Happily Hoarding Harpies



You’ve probably always wondered about that strange neighbor who has more than 30 cats running around their home.  Wonder no more – thanks to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manuel of Mental Disorders (vol V), your neighbor can now be diagnosed with “Hoarding Disorder”. 

What if the Harpies were suddenly bedeviled by this plague?  Would they collect cats, crafts, or kewpies?  No, they would hoard dragons.  One Pet Dragon is not enough.  There would be so many dragon droppings you couldn't walk three feet without stepping in it.  Not a pretty home ... or nest.  

So let's make a deck! The Dragon Hoarding Harpy deck might look like this: 
 

Core Deck 25
Dragon Side 15
Harpy Side 15
H Channeler 3
Blaster 3
Harpie Dancer 2
Harpie Lady 3
Tempest 2
Mist Valley Falcon 2
Queen 2
Redox 3
MV Soldier 1
Pet Dragon 2
Maxx C 3


Delta Flyer 1



Harpie Hunting 1
Dark Spear 1
Sacred Sword 3
Egotist 1
Corsesca 1
Return 1
Divine Wind 2
ScareCrow 3



Swallow's Nest 1






Terraforming 1
Six Sense 1





Hysteric Sign 3



Hysteric Party 2
Harpie Hunting 1



Trap Stun 2








PWWB 2





COTH 2





















Dragon Deck

Harpy Deck




41

41


Harpie Channeler 3
Harpie Channeler 3


Harpie Lady 3
Harpie Lady 3


Harpie Queen 2
Harpie Queen 2


Pet Dragon 2
Pet Dragon 2


Delta Flyer 1
Delta Flyer 1


Dark Spear 1
Dark Spear 1


Corsesca 1
Corsesca 1


Swift ScareCrow 3
Swift ScareCrow 3


Tempest 3
Tempest 1










Blaster 3
Harpie Dancer 2


Redox 3
Mist Valley Falcon 2


Maxx C 3
MV Soldier 1










Hysteric Sign 3
Hysteric Sign 3


Harpie Hunting 1
Harpie Hunting 2










Sacred Sword 3
Egotist 1





Divine Wind 2





Swallow's Nest 1





Terraforming 1










PWWB 2
PWWB 2


COTH 2
COTH 2


Sixth Sense 1
Sixth Sense 1










Return 1
Hysteric Party 2





Trap Stun 2




First things first – The idea of using a 12 card dragon engine is not mine.  All the credit for that idea goes to ssjason.  The only credit I can get is taking this mutant miscreation into the last regional of the format.  We who are about to die salute you. 

I will avoid the flurry of comments by making a few pertinent observations:

  1. Why mix the two types?  Transitional siding is usually not a good idea.  It takes away a lot of flexibility.  Besides, you opponent can usually tell something is up when he sees you grab your 15 card side deck.  The first advantage is that a deck like this really throws people off.  It’s Harpies … it’s dragons?  The generation of the WTF moment is worth a misplay or two.  The second reason is that players will side in dead cards.  Go ahead – get those Iron Walls and Electric Viruses out.
  2. Why Redox and not Tidal?  The dragon side of the deck has to win against dragons.  That’s no small order.  However, I am stacking the odds a bit by including 3 Swift Scarecrow and 3 Maxx “C”.  Scarecrow is also a good choice because you may notice that there are not a lot of defensive traps in this deck.  So far, my track record against dragon decks is not so good. 
  3. Do you need Dracossack to play this deck? Sorry Virginia, but you will have to shell out the 60 to 70 dollars to get that card.  This deck needs a first turn play and Master of Blades is not a good choice.
  4. What about effect negation?  Sure … bring that up.  I’m sure there is a Watt Lock with my name on it.  Nevertheless, Harpies ability to wipe out the backrow will come in handy. 
  5. Does the deck produce dead hands?  Hmmm … like 2 Sacred Swords and no dragons? Or how ‘bout a Corsesca, Delta Flyer, and 2 Pet Dragons?  Play out of that one Mai while you are staring at a couple of Graphas.  Nevertheless, I have put in 13 targets for Blaster, 18 targets for Redox, and 21 targets for Tempest. At some point, the plays have to come.
  6. What about the Extra Deck? The extra deck is a standard mix of level 8 synchros and rank 4 and 7 XYZ.  The only additional monster is StarEater because he’s big, he can be made with Delta Flyer, and he’s big. 

I’m still not sure about this deck.  I’ll give it a few more real life plays before making my final decision.  After all, the Bubble Boy wants his invite!

Friday, November 1, 2013

Terraforming the Harpies: Too Much of a Good Thing


Can you play too many searchers in a Yugioh deck?  Intuition would say probably not.  However, it’s not always a good idea to trust intuition.  

This question came up in the Pojo forum on Harpies.  In brief, Harpie players were arguing if it was better to play two copies each of Divine Wind of the Mist Valley, Terraforming, and Harpie’s Hunting Ground or some other ratio.  Initially, I opted for two Terraforming since deck thinning is always a good idea. Right?  Not quite.  As it turns out, playing two Terraforming increases the risk of a dead draw.  Here’s why –

Drawing the cards in sequence creates one permutation of these six cards.  For example: 


There are 6! or 720 of these permutations.  Most of these permutations are fine unless they end with Terraforming.  Drawing that card with no targets gives you a wasted draw.  Here are examples of two such permutations: 


Since you can get to these permutations by rearranging the remaining five cards in any order, there are a total of 5! or 120 such permutations.  However, the following permutation also gives you a dead card since the first Terraforming will select the last Hunting Ground: 


Rearranging the remaining four fields spells in any order produces 4! or 24 permutations that have Terraformings at space four and five. 

So, playing one Terraforming and five field spells generates 120 dead cards in 720 permutations or 16.7%.  Playing two Terraforming and four field spells produces 144 dead cards or 20.0%.  Therefore, playing one Terraforming will likely yield better results. 

There are valid reasons for wanting to play two of each card.  Drawing through all six cards may seem unlikely.  Having the flexibility to grab either Divine Wind or Harpie’s Hunting Ground is a plus.  However, Harpie players should remember their Queen


She can reduce the number of Terraforming targets so that you are almost guaranteed to have a dead draw.