Seven Tools vs. Trap Stun

The demise of the Droolers has brought resurgence to trap heavy decks. Bujins, Geargias, Madolche, and Gravekeepers are all experiencing a bit of a renaissance.  With their raise to prominence comes renewed interest in anti-trap cards including Seven Tools of the Bandit. 

Seven Tools was a staple of mine in the days of the Solemn trio (i.e. two Warnings and one Judgment).  Few plays were more satisfying than negating one these powerful traps. Not only did it disrupt their strategy, it almost always led to a life point advantage.   However, I am a bit more skeptical about its use today. 

Let’s compare Seven Tools with Trap Stun, another popular anti-trap card.

             Category                                                   Seven Tools                                        Trap Stun

Negation of more than one trap                                     No                                                      Yes

Negation in response to activation                                Yes                                                     Yes

Negation of continuous traps                                        No                                                      Yes

Negation of a counter-trap                                           Yes                                                      No

                                                               

When it comes right down to it, the preference of Seven Tools over Trap Stun depends on your dread of counter-traps. I have listed the most playable counter-traps below.

There are currently 88 legal counter-traps in Yugioh.  Of these, only 32 are decent enough to be considered playable. Seven of these 32 are restricted to particular archetypes. Of the remaining 25, only four are seeing regular play: Solemn Warning, Divine Wrath, Black Horn of Heaven, and Debunk. Warning is limited and Black Horn and Debunk are found only on side deck lists.  That leaves Divine Wrath, which will likely see more play as quick effect monsters gain in popularity. 

So should you include it? Using one card to chase two or three is generally a bad idea.  The chances that Seven Tools will be set and ready to spring on your opponent’s counter trap are low.  More than likely, you will be paying a 1,000 LP to do what Trap Stun would do for free. I suspect some players may be beguiled by having negated a Warning or Divine Wrath.  It feels good, but it is likely biasing your opinion. I would wait for the day when at least three counter traps are considered staples.

Postscript: As I was reviewing the deck lists from the most recent ARG tournament, I noticed that Trap Stun was showing up in Hieratic Rulers as well as Geargia.  Seven Tools is an effective way to keep your traps from being emasculated by Trap Stun.  Given Geargias heavy penchant for back row cards, playing Seven Tools is beginning to make more sense. The usefulness of the card may depend on the prevalence of these decks. 

When will I draw my card?

Special summoning against your opponent’s set backrow is a little like walking onto a newly frozen pond.  You proceed with a bit of tenuousness. 

Step: Normal summon … please, no Bottomless …

Step: Special summon … please, no Solemn Judgment …

Step: XYZ summon … please, no Tor

Opponent: Torrential Tribute!

Through the ice you go with all your imperious monsters. 

So here’s the question Sid Crosby: What are the odds of your opponent drawing an out with each turn? 

The following graph shows the percentage of drawing a card as a function of the number of draws. Each line represents the number of copies of the card in the deck.  Given the search power of most decks, I have included values for more than three cards.  For example, Yamato can be searched by Tenki and Peacock giving the player nine ways of finding the little general.  I should add that this analysis does not take into consideration what has already been played.  If your opponent has played Torrential, the chance of drawing Torrential is 0.  I also do not account for decking thinning as the result of a search.  Nevertheless, I do believe it is illustrative. 

Good players probably intuit what this graph demonstrates.  For the rest of us, a table may be more practical. The numbers in red are the turn in which your opponent has more than 50% or 90% chance of having a particular card. For example, your opponent has a 50% chance of having Dark Hole by turn 15.  He has a 90% chance of having it by turn 31.  

Number of Cards	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Turn for > 50%	15	7	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
Turn for > 90%	31	22	16	12	9	7	6	5	4

What can we learn from this little analysis?

1. Fear not the one of’s.  I certainly don’t want to advocate reckless play.  Going minus four to Dark Hole is a quick way to descend to the lower tables.  On the other hand, one can play too conservatively.  In fact, conservative play is often punished by the speed of most decks.  In a meta of unprecedented searching power, drawing Dark Hole is a relatively rare event.

2. Don’t rely on two or three side deck cards.  Putting in three Light-Imprisoning Mirrors is not enough to beat Bujins.  You will have to wait four turns to have a 50% chance of having that card while the Bujin player will have an 80% chance of opening with Yamato.  While I agree that LIM is a great card and one that I will side, you should consider ways of playing around that deck without it. 

3. Keep these numbers in mind when facing certain archetypes.  I’ve pointed out in a previous post that there are more similarities than differences in deck builds.   For example, Fire Fist decks typically play only one or two traps that hurt you when attacking.  Holding back an attack in fear of a Mirror Force, Dimensional Prison, or Magic Cylinder makes little sense.  Your opponent will need six or seven turns to have a 50% chance of having one of those cards. 

Coming up next: The Road to YCS Atlanta

My posts and play over the next two weeks will be dedicated to getting ready for this event.  This is the first big event after the introduction of Legacy of the Valiant.  It should be entertaining. 

Learning to Love the Devil

Many years ago*, I was watching TV with my dad when our show was interrupted by an advertisement for a retirement home.

“Now with full time security” the ad intoned. At which point, a crooked little man walked across the screen. 

“I feel safer already,” I quipped

“Yes” my dad corrected, “but he has a gun, the great equalizer.”

Somehow the elderly of the 70’s would feel secure in the knowledge that an old man and his peacemaker could take out a young man with a bat.  It was a gentler time. 

From its inception, Yugioh has had its share of great equalizers.  Dark Hole, the prototype monster wipe, was part of the very first set of Yugioh cards.  At three, you would have close to a 60% chance of drawing it by turn five.  That luxury lasted about a year and a half.  By September 2003, the card has been either limited (48%) or forbidden (52%).   When limited, the fifth turn of a duel will give you access to the card 25% of the time.  

Heavy Storm was released only four months behind Dark Hole.  Like its monster partner, the card was also limited on the very first F&L list. If you have played Yugioh since 2003, you have had access to one copy of the card 78% of the time.  It’s been forbidden the other 22%.  

Despite these restrictions, the good folks at corporate Yugioh wanted you to have these cards.  Dark Hole has been released six times including five starter decks.  Heavy Storm is even more common having been included in 19 sets of which 12 were starter or structure decks.  

These cards are limited for good reason: they change the nature of the game.  Those of you who played during the stormy times probably didn’t freely set backrow.  Rushing in so recklessly is a good way to give your opponent a three card advantage.  So you held back and played more deliberately - and this change in play style happened when we had only one Storm.   

Dark Hole brings a similar vibe. Spam if you want, but be prepared to be fried.  Spamming success takes the ability to read your opponent and the likelihood that they have Dark Hole.  As a result of this limited card, you will think twice about surplus summoning. 

 

Enter Evilswarm Exciton Knight, the ultimate chase card from Legacy of the Valiant.  Most of the current decks will have no problem spitting out two level four generic monsters at any time.  A 25% chance for Dark Hole by turn five will seem quaint in the days of Beelzebub.  Our little photon transformed friend should be considered as a response in almost any turn.  Do you want to take full advantage of all the pluses your deck offers without having an out to Exciton?  I suspect not. All they need is fewer cards and a piece of chain.  As a result, you will play a bit more conservatively and that’s not such a bad thing.  Playing around the threat of this monster adds an interesting dynamic to this game and has made me a little less supercilious. 

Of course, reading your opponent’s access to Exciton should be pretty easy.  Let’s see, 11 year old kid with no card covers, no mat, and the Blue Eyes Starter deck … probably no Exciton.  How ‘bout a 20 year old with  30 lbs of binders that include a playset of Ultra Rare BEWDs from the Swedish Shonen Jump magazine … probably has Exciton too. 

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*A long, long time ago: Carter was president and you couldn't click the advertisement away after 20 seconds