Pre-season rankings for 181 Yugioh Archetypes

We are on the eve of a New Year and playas and pundits alike are making their predictions.  Traditionally, the Yugiverse has done the same in response to the F & L list.  Alas, that vaunted list has little influence on the meta.  The modern game is dominated by the release of evermore powerful archetypes. 

Over the next three fortnights, Konami will disgorge themselves of Secrets of Eternity, Hero Strike, and Secret Forces.  While SECE will cause only minor ripples, Hero Strike and Secret Forces will cause seismic shifts in the game.  Heroes return with a searchable Macro Cosmos and the Secret Forces will establish the primacy of Nekroz with their reincarnate Trishula.  Furthermore, these latter sets will be readily accessible.  While I decry the haste of their release, I am grateful that these cards will be affordable to most doolists.  All of the investors in Burning Abyss should be prepared to get burned by a bargain deck.

My quarterly lists remain popular posts and seem to garner the most comments.  Commenting on eBlogger is cumbersome and not reader friendly.  I suspect more try than succeed.  Nevertheless, I will try to post any comment that is not vulgar as quickly as possible.  That said, one should realize this list is a somewhat ironic statement about the nature of prediction in general.   Preseason polls are little more than fodder for barroom conversation. My list is also intended for such conversations whether they take place in bars or elsewhere.

This list was made with the following observations:

1.  I am including Secrets of Eternity and Hero Strike but not Secret Forces.  In other words, this list is a prediction of the meta until February 12^th.  This choice is somewhat random but it reflects my desire to prepare for YCS South Carolina on February 1^st.
2. Graveyard dependent decks will get hit.   Dark Law will be the new law in town.
3. Light themed decks will trend up slightly with Honest at two.
4.  Several lower tiered decks will get a small boost from SECE.  Unfortunately, none of this additional support will move these decks into competitive contention.  However, they should inject a little bit of fun into some beloved archetypes. This list includes X Sabers, Zombies, Symphonic Warriors, Dragunities, and winged beast themed decks.
5.  Be wary of two rogue strategies!  Monarch support has been slowly increasing over the past year.  The less dependent monarchs are on the little froggy, the better they will be.  I also think Koa’ki Meiru Overdose will add greatly to the Rock Stun strategy.

A few notes on this list:

• The larger numbers on the left are my predictions for the first 4 - 6 weeks of the meta. 
• The smaller numbers on the right were my predictions following the last F&L list.
•  I update this list with the institution of each new F&L list.  I do not delete my older posts.  
• I have dropped my tongue and cheek tier ratings since this seems to be a point of contention among the Yugioh faithful.
• ... and yes, please tell me why Gimmick Puppets should leap above Galaxy.

Tier Rankings for 178 Yugioh Archetypes

Over the past year, no deck has garnered more than 30 – 40% of the regional tops.  We lived in the “Days of Diversity”. Unfortunately, those days have ended in a Burning Abyss.  

The Burning Abyss deck will remain dominant because of its effect on trap cards. In the ole days, trap cards made you pay for good effects.  The payment or cost usually meant losing a card.  Burning Abyss completely changes this accounting by turning the cost into a benefit.  Who would ever consider playing 3 Phoenix Wing and 3 Karma Cut? Abyss players have no problem with such cards.  As a result, they will find themselves on top of the Yugiheap. 

The table below gives my hierarchy for all of the underlying archetypes.  I present this ranking with my tongue thoroughly in my cheek recognizing that there is a degree of arbitrariness.   Nevertheless, this listing is my way of standing up for all of the forgotten archetypes. 

The larger number to the left is their predicted rank; the smaller number to the right is their former rank.  I’ve done my best to represent all the archetypes even though that very designation is somewhat artificial.   

Here are some of the assumptions I used to form this list
 

Rank four toolbox decks get demoted.  Decks like Geargia, Madolche, and Satellarknights all lose to Shaddolls.  These decks either leave their level four monster on the field or give the Shaddoll player a live fusion card.  Neither play is good. 

Glow-up Bulb will help a handful of decks.  The little green bulb single-handedly keeps Sylvans on the top tier by giving them level eight synchro plays.  Karakuris may also get a boost because of their easier access to Beast. 

ROTA’s impact will be minor. Bujin’s and Noble Knights could get a minor boost.  I suspect other decks with warriors will probably play the card at two. 

Limiting Superpoly limits but does not kill Shaddolls.  If you’re looking for death by F & L, look at Infernities.

Archetype Predictions for the Summer of 2014

I tend to think of the time between Nationals and Labor Day as Yugioh’s off-season.  Mid-August brings the opening of training camps where a large number of rookies will get incorporated into the doolists’ teams.  Then we’ll have a new F & L list and the season opener, which usually takes the form of a Canadian YCS. Given this low period, I had intended to save my archetype prediction list until the fall.  

While those dynamics remain essentially unchanged, this year’s crop of Duelist Alliance rookies will bring a cosmic do-over to the game of Yugioh.  The chaos sorcery is further enhanced by a new summoning mechanism.  While the impact of pendulum summoning will not be fully felt until the New Challengers set, it will benefit certain archetypes. Given these changes, I felt compelled to update my list.  Besides, someone asked me to do so.  

The table below gives my order of meta defining archetypes from strongest to weakest.  The larger number to the left is their predicted rank; the smaller number to the right is their former rank.  I’ve done my best to represent all the archetypes even though that very designation is somewhat artificial.  Is H.A.T. an archetype? 

Here are some of the assumptions used to revise this list: 

Newer archetypes take precedence over older ones.  Fire Fists are likely stronger than their ranking would suggest.  However, most FF players have probably moved on.  Similar logic can be applied to Geargia.  That said, the OCG makes a strong case for the primacy of Shaddolls.  Stellarknights are not as strong as a pure archetype; however, these cards will likely get integrated into a number of decks. 

Only the fastest will survive.  Midrash is a difficult monster to overcome. Though a number of decks can make a run at the Spamalot title, only a few will be able to beat this Hebrew, wind, puppet thing.  The most viable contender is Infernities, which have neat ways of incorporating many of the newer cards.  

Double ROTA will have an impact. This may be the breakout format for Noble Knights. The deck does not relay on a lot of summoning and it can make pretty beefy combatants. Evilswarms also move up the list, as they do whenever the meta moves away from XYZ summoning. ROTA will give a substantial boost to Six Samurais, which are one of the few decks to also benefit from the return of Goyo.  

Many light themed decks will suffer collateral damage.  Side-deck hate that is aimed at Stellarknights and Sacksworns will have an impact on several lesser played archetypes like Constellars, Hunders, Worms, and Batterymen.  Sorry guys.  

Pendulum summoning will have a modest impact. I have not completely overlooked this mechanic.  Gadgets and Monarchs have both moved up the list.  I have also given some love to Ninjas, one of my favorite archetypes.  Hanzo and Mist Valley monsters can bring out Dark Simorgh with relative ease.  At least as the rules are currently interpreted, the Persian god can keep monsters out of the pendulum zone.  

Enjoy your summer.

Predictions for All Yugioh Archetypes in the April 2014 Meta

Once again, I will attempt to predict the performance of all 168 Yugioh archetypes in the next meta. This list takes skill, insight, and above all, the belief that no one will really check to see if the Ally of Justice will outperform the Arcana Force.  

The changes wrought by the F&L list are rather meager.  Though Fire Fist players will bemoan the Wolfbark limitations, the deck will remain a dominant presence.  Mermails are also affected but you will see them at major tournaments.  Commentators, including myself, often overestimate the impact these changes.  

The real challenge of these predictions is guessing the cards that will be released in the next three months.  I have yet to see a complete list for either Dragons of Legacy or Primal Origins.  The latter, for example, totes support for 37 archetypes.  The impact of future cards can already be seen in the OCG.  The Chronomaly’s have tremendous potential if they can get their precious disk. 

With those caveats, here are my predictions:

  

1. The meta will remain diverse.  I was a bit hesitant to predict a diverse meta in December.  It appears that diversity is the new normal.

2. Bujins, Gears, and Maldoches will have their moment to shine. Don’t think of the future little decks, just enjoy what you have now.  

3. Sylvans are looking to be the new bully on the block.  The Mermails got me to hate the phrase “Pitch to Summon”.  Soon I will learn to hate the term “excavate”.

Tier Predictions for All 150 Yugioh Archetypes (Winter 2014)

Here’s my breakdown of all 157 Yugioh archetype for the coming format.  

… of course,  I need to give a few provisos, conditions, and caveats. What pundit doesn’t?  

The meta will likely change dramatically as new products are released. I have tried to include those changes in this list.  For example, Bujins, Chronomaly, Heraldics, and Ghostricks will be substantially stronger.  Geargias are also getting new support though its not clear when Auger will get released.  

With that said, here are a few observations about this list:

1.  Diversity now!  This meta will have many strong decks but not a single dominating deck.  It’s a risky prediction because all of the formats are generally dominated by one deck. Nevertheless, I do not see us experiencing a Dragon’s 2.0 
2.  Down the drain. Decks that can play Skill Drain get a bit of a boost. This format will be a battle of the effect monsters and Skill Drain is going to hurt.  As a result, Malefics and TGs get a boost.
3. Gentlemen, have your Trap Stuns ready.  This will be a trap heavy format.  Several of the decks rely on a substantial backrow.  Madolche, Bujins, and Geargias all fall in this category
4. Yugi glory is under the sea.  Once again, Mermails are poised to be a very strong deck.  They have not suffered at all from the F&L list.  They are still underplayed but I suspect a lot of Dragon Droolers will make their way back to this deck. 
5.  Creature Swap is a card.  I’ve made the point before that Creature Swap is a very strong card this format.  It doesn’t target and doesn’t destroy. Float like a butterfly and swap like a bee. 

I hope you find this list helpful as you prepare for more Yugioh!